What could we fund for the cost of a pipeline?

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Much of the recent debate around Kinder Morgan’s pipeline and tanker project has centered around vigorous debate between the provinces of BC and Alberta and the question or whether the project is in the national interest. Ultimately, this depends on what kind of economy Canadians want to invest in, and what kind of economic future we want to create. Because of these key questions, we are updating and re-sharing some of our previous research around what’s fuelling Canada’s economy and where Kinder Morgan’s pipeline fits in. 

At the same time, over 800 businesses have joined together to raise concerns about investing taxpayer dollars in Kinder Morgan’s risky pipeline and tanker project at http://LetsMoveForward.ca

Overnight co-owners of a controversial pipeline

On May 29th, the Canadian government announced that it will be purchasing the existing Trans Mountain pipeline from Kinder Morgan for $4.5 billion and investing another $9 billion to construct the beleaguered pipeline expansion. In addition, the government has committed $2.1 billion in financial assurances for spills, and $1.5 billion to a new Ocean Protection Plan. In total, this project will cost taxpayers more than $17 billion.

What else could Canada invest in instead?

We did a quick investigation into what these federal funds could otherwise be spent on, and came up with three quick comparisons:

CRED_kmbuyout_rev1_housing


According to the federal government
, a national housing strategy would cost $4 billion dollars a year, less than the cost of purchasing the existing Trans Mountain pipeline (let alone building the expansion).

CRED_kmbuyout_rev1_pharmacare

The $17 billion it will cost to buy and build the Trans Mountain pipeline won’t cover the entire cost of a national pharmacare program, which is budgeted at $19 billion, but it would cover the vast majority – more than enough to get it off the ground.

CRED_kmbuyout_rev1_daycare

During the last federal election, the NDP calculated that it would cost $5 billion to put in place $15 a day daycare for every child in care across the entire country. Instead of giving a massive taxpayer bailout to Kinder Morgan’s pipeline, the federal government could fund over 3 years of universal affordable childcare.

On top of this, with a $17 billion investment, we could solve the homelessness crisis in Vancouver 15 times overAccording to the City of Vancouver, the total cost to give housing to everyone on the Downtown Eastside is about $1.1 billion. That would give housing to everyone who is currently unhoused or living in unsafe housing (SROs primarily) for 30 years.

And for the cost of this pipeline, not only could we provide clean drinking water to every reserve across Canada, but we could provide it in gold-plated taps.

So which kind of economy do we want to invest in?

 

What’s Fuelling BC’s Economy?

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Much of the recent debate around Kinder Morgan’s pipeline and tanker project has centered around vigorous debate between the provinces of BC and Alberta and the question or whether the project is in the national interest. Ultimately, this depends on what kind of economy Canadians want to invest in, and what kind of economic future we want to create. 

There are also important questions about whether Canada’s economy is reliant on oil sands expansion, and whether the pipeline would create long-term jobs. Because of these key questions, we are updating and re-sharing some of our previous research around what’s fuelling Canada’s economy and where Kinder Morgan’s pipeline fits in. 

At the same time, over 700 businesses have joined together to raise concerns about investing taxpayer dollars in Kinder Morgan’s risky pipeline and tanker project at http://LetsMoveForward.ca

A remarkably diverse economy

It’s often said that British Columbia is a resource-based province. In actual fact, the reality is a lot more complex. While it’s true that much of BC was built on natural resources, and that even today sectors like technology and construction have a certain amount of linkages and inter-relationships with primary resource sectors, the basis of our economy has overwhelmingly shifted to service-based industries.

Over the past few decades, a monumental shift has been taking place – more than 4 out of 5 British Columbians now work in services, and the majority of our GDP comes from these sectors. Only a small percentage comes from oil, gas, and supporting services.

In fact, technology, tourism, construction, film and television each create more jobs than oil, gas, and mining combined.

BC is also in the middle of an economic boom. It led the country in GDP growth in 2015 and 2016, and is continuing to grow at a fast pace (according to the BMO Blue Book).

A few highly visible sectors are credited with the most recent economic growth and job creation – notably construction and real estate. However, it’s our remarkably diverse economy that anchors our prosperity. British Columbia’s economy is largely made up of non-resource based industries and thousands of small businesses in sectors from tourism to tech.

BC GDP and service vs goods.png

Where Does Our Wealth Come From?

When GDP figures for British Columbia are broken down, service industries make the largest contribution to provincial wealth – approximately 75%.

Real estate makes up the largest share of that, accounting for more than 18% of GDP. Construction, wholesale and retail trade, and health care also make up significant portions. By contrast, oil, gas, and support services make up just 3.4% of BC’s GDP. As a whole, the energy sector’s total contribution to provincial GDP is 5.7% (source).

BC GDP by industry.png

Where are the Jobs?

While we may think of BC as a resource-based province, things have changed over the years. The mining, oil and gas sector employs just 1.2% of the workforce, or approximately 27,000 people. By comparison, technology, tourism, construction, and even film and television employ significantly more people.

BC_jobs_snapshot.png

According to the BC Ministry of Finance, BC’s biggest employers are:

  • Wholesale and retail trade – 353,000 jobs
  • Health and welfare services – 287,000 jobs
  • Construction – 202,000 jobs
  • Professional, scientific, technical – 188,000 jobs
  • Accommodation and food services – 178,000 jobs

BC’s workforce is growing, and, fortunately, jobs are increasing to keep pace. In 2015, BC saw its labour force increase 1.3%, the fastest annual rate of growth since 2008. At the same time employment activity increased, primarily from full-time jobs in service industries (source).

Small businesses make up 98% of all BC businesses. 

Biggest industries for jobs in BC.png

Read our full 2016 report for more details: WHAT’S FUELLING OUR ECONOMY: Is Kinder Morgan’s Proposed Pipeline Inconsistent with New Economic Trends and Realities?

Does Canada’s economy need Kinder Morgan?

Port of Vancouver

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Much of the recent debate around Kinder Morgan’s pipeline and tanker project has centered around vigorous debate between the provinces of BC and Alberta and the question or whether the project is in the national interest. Ultimately, this depends on what kind of economy Canadians want to invest in, and what kind of economic future we want to create. 

There are also important questions about whether Canada’s economy is reliant on oil sands expansion, and whether the pipeline would create long-term jobs. Because of these key questions, we are updating and re-sharing some of our previous research around what’s fuelling Canada’s economy and where Kinder Morgan’s pipeline fits in. 

At the same time, over 700 businesses have joined together to raise concerns about investing taxpayer dollars in Kinder Morgan’s risky pipeline and tanker project at http://LetsMoveForward.ca

Where Does Canada’s Wealth Come From?

A diverse mosaic of industries forms our national economy, from tech start ups to winter sports to microbreweries. Although key industries vary significantly across regions, some clear national trends are also evident.

Real estate is by far Canada’s largest sector overall, contributing a full 13% of national GDP. Manufacturing and retail and wholesale trade are also significant, each bringing in some 11% of GDP (according to 2017 data by StatsCan). Construction and finance each generate another 7% of GDP.

Comparatively, in 2017, the oil and gas extraction sector was responsible for 6.5% of national GDP (again according to StatsCan). Although still significant, this economic contribution is less than most Canadians realize, as reported in a poll conducted by Environics.

Canada 2017 GDP by industry
Of this, the Alberta oil sands (what Statistics Canada calls “unconventional oil and gas extraction”) contributed just 2% of GDP – a number that has remained relatively consistent over the past several years.

Relative size of oil sands


Which Sectors Contribute the Most to Social Spending?

Another part of the ‘national interest’ conversation has focused on whether Kinder Morgan’s pipeline is necessary to pay for other public investments, like schools and hospitals. To answer this question, first it’s important to put the energy sector in context.

In 2014, the total the oil and gas sector––including oil and gas extraction and support activities––contributed 3.6% of all federal corporate tax revenue. This number is relatively low compared to financial and insurance services, which together contributed 23% of all federal corporate taxes, and construction, which contributed 7.6%. It is also notably lower than the manufacturing sector, which covered 14% of federal tax revenues in 2014.

Canada tax revenues breakdown
Read our full 2016 report for more details: WHAT’S FUELLING OUR ECONOMY: Is Kinder Morgan’s Proposed Pipeline Inconsistent with New Economic Trends and Realities?

 

Kinder Morgan benefits overblown: independent study

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Earlier this week, an independent study released by the SFU Centre for Public Policy Research, in collaboration with California-based consultancy the Goodman Group, found that Kinder Morgan has substantively over-stated the benefits of its proposed Trans Mountain Pipeline Expansion in its submission to the National Energy Board.

The report echoes past research from CRED which has found that BC’s provincial and municipal coffers will only get a tiny benefit from the Trans Mountain expansion. Instead, oil sands producers, Alberta and, of course, Kinder Morgan will be the main beneficiaries.

Municipal benefits from the Trans Mountain pipeline expansionCRED_km tax revenue Municipalities rev1-01

According to our research, Kinder Morgan’s stated tax benefits (which, as this report highlights, maybe also be overblown) would only fund a small fraction of provincial and municipal services – 0.3% of the costs of running the province’s schools, for example, or just 1% of the Coquitlam police department. Even the biggest municipal beneficiary, the City of Burnaby, could fund less than 9% of its Parks, Recreation and Cultural budget with tax revenues from the Trans Mountain Expansion. And this is a best case scenario, assuming no increased costs for servicing the pipeline right-of-way or any incidents to respond to.

BC provincial benefits from the Trans Mountain expansionCRED_km tax revenue BC rev1-01

The SFU report also found that Kinder Morgan has significantly over-estimated the number of jobs the pipeline would create, and downplayed the cost of a major oil spill because the company failed to take into account the high population density of the Lower Mainland, underestimating the costs of a catastrophic oil spill by potentially billions of dollars.

Download the full report here, and read CRED’s reaction here.

 

BC clean tech profile

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Sometimes it *is* just about wind turbines and home retrofits.

In 2007, Glenn Johnson, a Surrey resident, founded Endurance Wind Power. Less than 10 years later, his wind turbine manufacturing and energy generation business employs 155 educated professionals – and the majority live in Surrey, where the company is based.

This company is just one component of the clean tech hub that the City of Surrey is hoping to establish in the next five years as a way to diversity the local economy and create local job opportunities for the half-million people living in Canada’s fastest-growing municipality. Simon Fraser University’s Surrey campus has partnered with the City and is investing heavily in clean tech research, bolstering this opportunity.

A burgeoning industry

Endurance Wind Power, along with other emerging Surrey clean tech businesses, is part of a larger trend. High tech jobs, and specifically those in clean technology, have been in the news a lot lately – and for good reason. They’re fast becoming one of BC’s core economic pillars.

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How does BC’s construction sector break down?

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Construction generates a lot of buzz, especially when talking about the jobs created by new oil & gas projects. Here, we take a deeper dive into the sector as a follow-on from our recent report, “What’s Fuelling BC’s Economy?” 

Are construction jobs the missing link?

In BC, the construction sector – building everything from houses to roadways – is responsible for 7% of our GDP and almost one in ten jobs. It’s also one of our province’s fastest-growing sectors. But how does it break down, and what are some of the factors that keep the construction sector booming?

What fuels construction?

The construction sector is one of the primary drivers of our provincial economy. It’s a $15 billion dollar industry in BC – and over the past decade, has consistently been one of the fastest growing sectors.

So where is this growth coming from? Just over half of the GDP from BC’s construction sector comes from retail and commercial building construction and another 16% comes from repairs. Finally, the remaining 31% is from industrial projects, everything from roadways to hydroelectric dams [source: BC economic accounts – download].

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The changing face of jobs in Northern BC

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How important are resource jobs to BC’s north?

After posting a report highlighting that only 1 in 100 BC jobs are in the mining, oil and gas sectors & that more people in our province work in the tech sector than in oil, gas, mining, forestry and utilities combined, we started having conversations about the tensions between different parts of our province – is information like this more relevant to Vancouver and the surrounding south coast than to the interior and north?

Outside of the urban and populous south coast, it’s often assumed that vastly different market forces are at play. We decided to examine the data and see if these assumptions matched up with reality.

In particular, we were interested to learn what regional job markets in the north of the province look like, which industries are growing & which are shrinking, and where future demand is expected to come from. What would the same jobs breakdown look like in Kitimat or Prince George – both places where primary resource industries have traditionally played a significant economic role?  Is there a much higher reliance on extractive industries (oil, mining and gas) than in the south? The following summarizes our initial research:

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Tech jobs trump resources

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Job creation is often touted as a primary reason to go ahead with energy projects like the Trans Mountain Pipeline.  But in fact, energy takes a back seat to many other sectors.

For example, the tech sector is significant in job creation – it employs 84,000 people in BC, which is more than oil, mining, gas, and forestry combined.  If this number surprises you, take a look at some other surprising stats on where BC’s wealth comes from. We find that the energy sector is small potatoes when it comes to job creation, funding social programs and generating wealth for our province.

Tech sector jobs

Fuelling BC’s economy: where does our wealth come from?

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Why does this conversation matter?

In order to decide whether energy development projects should go forward, it’s essential to have a good understanding of where the sector fits into the bigger economic picture. Of course we know that energy is important to Canada, but how important? In what ways? And is it more or less important than other sectors?

Where does our wealth come from?

It’s often said that British Columbia is a resource-based province. In actual fact, the reality is a lot more complex. While it’s true that much of BC was built on natural resources, and that even today sectors like technology and construction have a certain amount of inter-relationships with the resource sector, the basis of our economy has overwhelmingly shifted to service-based industries. More than 4/5 of us work in services and over 76% of our GDP comes from those sectors.

It’s also important to note that a significant part of our economy is based on small businesses. Small businesses make up 98% of all businesses here in BC, more than any other province.

Although economics can be complex and numbers can tell different stories depending on how they’re interpreted, some data speaks for itself. Here’s a chart breaking down the main sources of GDP in British Columbia:

BC GDP by industrySource: The 2012 British Columbia Economic Accounts, BC Stats

Oil, gas and support services make up just 3% of our GDP, compared to 15% for manufacturing and construction and over 23% for financial and real estate services. When secondary energy services are added into the equation, the total contribution to GDP is still only 11%. While this number is significant, it’s certainly not where most provincial economic activity is coming from.

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How reputation matters: oil spills and property values

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When an oil pipeline or tanker spills, how many homes are impacted and what do those impacts look like?

Our recently released report How do pipeline spills impact property values? concludes that, although direct contamination certainly hurts a home’s value, even neighbouring areas can expect to lose some value in the aftermath of a spill or other incident.

This is because public perception extends beyond the homes that are directly impacted. Especially if it’s not the first spill or leak along a particular pipeline, the surrounding area’s reputation will suffer.

Three cases of reputational damage highlighted in the report show an average value loss of 5-8% for homes up to a kilometre away from the incident. In Vancouver, where the average price of a home is just over $600,000, this could amount to a loss of $30-40,000.

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